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Trade Balance All-Time High As China Imports Fall & Exports Rebound

GERMAN DATA
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The German trade surplus for January came in at an all-time high of +E27.5bln (seasonally-adjusted; vs E21.0bln cons; E23.3bln prior, revised from E22.2bln).

  • Export growth outstripped import growth.
  • Exports +6.3% M/M (sa; vs +1.5% cons; -4.2% prior, revised from -4.6%) and imports +3.6% M/M (sa; vs +1.8% cons; -6.7% prior).
  • On a yearly, non-sa/ca comparison, exports increased +1.5% Y/Y and imports decreased -7.5% Y/Y.
  • Looking at a geographical split, trade with other EU members was particularly strong as exports to the EU increased +8.9% M/M, while EU imports increased +10.8% Y/Y.
  • With third-party countries, exports increased +3.1% M/M but imports decreased -4.5% M/M, driven by a further drop in Chinese imports, extending the recent trend.
  • The numbers point to a positive start re: net export contribution to Q1 2024 GDP vs. the the 0.0pp contribution seen in Q4 2023.
  • Import data provides positive signals for domestic demand.
  • On a longer term view, exports and imports are both projected to rebound in 2024, with real exports seen at +0.3% Y/Y and real imports seen at +0.6% Y/Y, per Bloomberg consensus.

MNI, Destatis

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The German trade surplus for January came in at an all-time high of +E27.5bln (seasonally-adjusted; vs E21.0bln cons; E23.3bln prior, revised from E22.2bln).

  • Export growth outstripped import growth.
  • Exports +6.3% M/M (sa; vs +1.5% cons; -4.2% prior, revised from -4.6%) and imports +3.6% M/M (sa; vs +1.8% cons; -6.7% prior).
  • On a yearly, non-sa/ca comparison, exports increased +1.5% Y/Y and imports decreased -7.5% Y/Y.
  • Looking at a geographical split, trade with other EU members was particularly strong as exports to the EU increased +8.9% M/M, while EU imports increased +10.8% Y/Y.
  • With third-party countries, exports increased +3.1% M/M but imports decreased -4.5% M/M, driven by a further drop in Chinese imports, extending the recent trend.
  • The numbers point to a positive start re: net export contribution to Q1 2024 GDP vs. the the 0.0pp contribution seen in Q4 2023.
  • Import data provides positive signals for domestic demand.
  • On a longer term view, exports and imports are both projected to rebound in 2024, with real exports seen at +0.3% Y/Y and real imports seen at +0.6% Y/Y, per Bloomberg consensus.

MNI, Destatis