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Trade Balance Narrows On Softer Exports

INDONESIA

The trade balance narrowed more than expected in March to $2.91bn from $5.46bn and while it is off its peak, it remains elevated. Exports contracted 11.3% y/y and imports by 6.3%, but both were better than projected. There were strong headwinds from March 2022.

  • Exports fell 11.3% y/y after rising 4.4% the previous month. The series is volatile and it is helpful to look at the 3-month moving average, which moderated to +3.2% y/y from 9.1%. The 3-month average by country showed robust exports to China at 29.3% y/y but continued weakness to the US (-24.9%) and Europe (-13.9%). Exports to other Asian countries generally remained positive.
  • There was a strong rise in mineral fuel exports but animal/vegetable fats & oil fell sharply.
  • Imports fell 6.3% from -4.3% in February with the 3-month average stable just above 3% y/y. Imports of electrical machinery jumped.
  • Bank Indonesia announces its rate decision on April 18 and is widely expected to leave rates at 5.75% (see MNI BI preview- April 2023). In its March statement, it noted improving export prospects, especially from increased demand from China.
Indonesia trade y/y% 3mma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

Indonesia exports ex oil & gas by country y/y% 3mma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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