Trade Data Slightly Better Than Forecast, Commodity Imports Expected To Improve

China trade figures were a touch better than expected. Exports printed at -9.9% y/y, (-11.1% forecast and -8.9% prior), while imports came in at -7.5% y/y (-10.0% forecast and -10.6% prior). The trade surplus rose a touch to $78.01bn, ($76.90bn forecast, $69.25bn prior).

• The data certainly could have been worse given the domestic covid outbreak spike during the month, Still, export growth is its weakest since early 2020 and generally in line with other North East Asia economies like South Korea and Taiwan.
• Import growth was slightly better but is not too far above recent lows. Commodity import volumes were generally softer, excluding oil. Iron ore dipped 8% m/m. Coal and copper were also down.
• Market sentiment clearly expects better import demand as we progress through 2023, with metal commodities among the clear winners in terms of the China re-opening trade in the commodity space.