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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NZD
There was improvement in the underlying trade balance for NZ in September, with the deficit around NZ1bn better compared to August (1.-NZ$1.615bn versus a revised deficit of -NZ$2.625bn). Exports improved to just over $NZ6bn but remain below earlier 2022 highs. Exports to Australia (+3.5% m/m) and China (+15.8% m/m) were firmer and remain strongly up on levels from a year ago. Imports slipped to $NZ7.64bn, but are only just off recent highs.
- There is still a long way to go in terms of improving the overall trade position. The trade balance, in 12mth YTD terms, only improved marginally to just under -NZ$12bn (from -NZ$-12.5bn).
- Lower global energy prices (Bloomberg aggregate index off -30% from June highs) should help the import bill, although NZ's terms of trade are only marginally above YTD lows according to the Citi Proxy.
- The other possible support is a further recovery in tourism inflows, although again, we are still some distance away from pre-pandemic levels, see the chart below.
- NZD/USD hasn't reacted a great deal to the print, last just below NY Closing levels at 0.5675. Coming up later is card spending figures for September, again though these is no consensus for this release (last was +5.1% m/m, 29.4% y/y).
Fig 1: NZ Short Terms Overseas Arrivals
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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