Trade Deficit Wider Than Expected On Export Dip

Philippines Oct trade figures were weaker than expected. Exports were -17.5% y/y, versus -8.2% forecast. This puts us back close to earlier lows around -20%. Imports were -4.4% y/y, close to expectations (-4.9%, prior -14.1%). This left the trade balance wider than forecast at $-4175mn, against a -$3490mn projection (prior -$3582mn).

• Exports were -5.5% m/m, dragged down by electronic exports -11.4% m/m. This sub sector is now down -28.9% in y/y terms. Manufacture exports were down -6.8% m/m, -21.1% y/y.
• On the import side, the main shift from the prior month came through via higher crude oil imports (+20.5%, versus -24.5%m/m prior). This sub sector is still down -5.3% in y/y terms.
• The trade position has largely moved sideways since the middle of the year. We are above 2022 lows though (around -$6000mn).