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Trade Figures Close To Expectations, Exports To China Weaken

JAPAN DATA

July trade figures were close to expectations. The trade deficit printed at -¥78.7bn, versus a ¥47.9bn forecast. In adjusted terms we were also slightly below expectations, -¥557.2bn, versus -¥460.9bn projected. This deficit was very similar to the June print.

  • Exports eased to -0.3% y/y, close to the -0.2% forecast, while the prior outcome was +1.5%. This was the first y/y fall since early 2021. By region, export volumes were firm to the US, +2.5% y/y, but weakened to China, -15.9% y/y. We are above earlier 2023 lows in terms of export momentum to China, but lost ground versus the June pace.
  • On the import side, we were also close to expectations. The outcome printing at -13.5% y/y, versus -15.2% forecast. The prior outcome was -12.9% y/y.
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