-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessTrade & IP Growth Gradually Recovering
Global merchandise trade contracted almost 2% in 2023 after rising 3.3% the previous year but global organisations expect it to normalise this year. Exports fell 0.7% and IP slowed but remained positive at 0.9%, according to the Dutch CPB. Trade improved over H2 though with it rising in 4 of the last 5 months, same with IP. The global manufacturing PMI returned to the breakeven-50 level in January and so this gradual recovery should continue into Q1 of this year.
Global growth %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg/CPB
- The signs are that global goods trade and growth will remain lacklustre over H1 2024 but should continue to pick up gradually with a collapse unlikely, in line with the outlook in Asian PMIs. This is consistent with the improvement in the 3-month measure of momentum for both trade and IP in December.
- Global exports rose 0.5% m/m in December driven by developed countries. Annual growth turned positive at 1.2% y/y after -0.3% with EM exports rising 4.7% y/y from 2.7% and DM improving to -0.6% y/y from -1.8%.
- Trends within each grouping are not uniform though with exports from the euro area, UK, Africa and emerging Asia still contracting but US, Japan, China, eastern Europe and Latin America all growing. China’s export growth recovered strongly over H2 2023 to 12.4% y/y in December.
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.