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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
Global merchandise trade contracted almost 2% in 2023 after rising 3.3% the previous year but global organisations expect it to normalise this year. Exports fell 0.7% and IP slowed but remained positive at 0.9%, according to the Dutch CPB. Trade improved over H2 though with it rising in 4 of the last 5 months, same with IP. The global manufacturing PMI returned to the breakeven-50 level in January and so this gradual recovery should continue into Q1 of this year.
Global growth %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg/CPB
- The signs are that global goods trade and growth will remain lacklustre over H1 2024 but should continue to pick up gradually with a collapse unlikely, in line with the outlook in Asian PMIs. This is consistent with the improvement in the 3-month measure of momentum for both trade and IP in December.
- Global exports rose 0.5% m/m in December driven by developed countries. Annual growth turned positive at 1.2% y/y after -0.3% with EM exports rising 4.7% y/y from 2.7% and DM improving to -0.6% y/y from -1.8%.
- Trends within each grouping are not uniform though with exports from the euro area, UK, Africa and emerging Asia still contracting but US, Japan, China, eastern Europe and Latin America all growing. China’s export growth recovered strongly over H2 2023 to 12.4% y/y in December.
Global exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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