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Trade Surplus Continues Downtrend

AUSTRALIA DATA

The May merchandise trade surplus narrowed more than expected with April also revised lower. It came in at $5.77bn down from $6.03bn, as imports outpaced exports. The surplus has been trending lower for almost two years now with exports performing poorly since mid-2023. Strong consumer goods imports would probably worry the RBA but they have been easing, while strength has been in the intermediate goods component.

Australia merchandise trade surplus $mn

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • Exports rose 2.8% m/m after falling 2.2% in April to still be down 7.8% y/y after -7.2%. The pickup was driven by metal ores & minerals driving a 3.7% m/m increase in non-rural goods which are still 7.2% lower on a year ago, while rural fell 1.2% to be down 15.9% y/y.
  • Imports rose 3.9% m/m to be up 3.5% y/y after -7.0% m/m and +2.1% y/y in April. May was driven by higher fuel imports and given the trade data are nominal the pickup in oil prices this year would have boosted this.
  • Consumer goods imports rose 2.4% m/m but fell 2.3% y/y. The May increase was broad-based across sectors with transport equipment up 2.9% m/m and food & beverages +3.1%. Capital goods rose 0.5% m/m and 1.7% y/y due to the +22.9% m/m rise in ADP equipment but machinery fell 1% and transport 10.2%. Intermediate goods rose 6.6% m/m and 10.5% y/y as fuel increased 10.8% m/m.
Australia goods exports vs imports y/y% 3-month ma

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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