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Trade Surplus Narrows As Imports Soar & Commodity Prices Fall

INDONESIA

The May trade surplus narrowed to $440mn from $3940mn, less than expected, due to a surge in import growth. Both export and import growth exceeded expectations rising by 1% y/y and 14.4% y/y respectively, when they were both forecast to decline again. But YTD exports are still down 6% y/y and imports -3.8% y/y.

  • Export growth was driven by agriculture (+32.4% y/y) and manufacturing (+10.3%)
  • Mining shipments fell 21% y/y and oil & gas -12.1%, as commodity prices ease. Palm oil exports were slightly higher in May, while coal exports declined. Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter and volumes fell 2.8% m/m while values declined 6.3% m/m.
  • The strong showing from imports was due to capex goods rising 60.3% y/y and consumer goods 36.5%, signalling robust domestic demand in the months ahead.
Indonesia trade balance vs Citi terms of trade proxy

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Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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