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US TSYS/7Y: Traders had mixed views on Tue 1pm ET US$28B 7Y note auction, which
cld benefit from a large estimated 0.11-yrs Bloomberg/Barclays US Tsys index
extension into month-end. But some observers urged more price concession. "This
is the end of the 2/5/7Y auction supply," said an observer. "And the big
month-end index extension looms."
- JPM analysts noted 7-yr ylds declined "roughly 7bp since the Oct. auction" and
trade "near the middle of the range they have held for the last month. Along the
curve, the 7-yr sector looks fairly valued" vs wings "after adjusting for the
level of rates and the shape of the curve. Also, the 7-yr roll opened at
+1.125bp and is now trading at +0.625bp, outperforming the erosion of carry.
Taking these factors together, we think" 7Y sale "will require some concession
to underwrite smoothly."
- They said Oct 7yr sale "stopped at 2.280%, 0.9bp cheap to pre-auction levels,
as end-user demand fell 9.9%-pts to 79.7%, the lowest level since July 2017. The
investor auction allotment details show that the weakness in end-user demand was
largely driven by a 13%-pts decline in investment manager sponsorship."