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Traders Survey Still Sees Initial 75BP Cut As Most Likely Scenario

CHILE
  • The central bank has posted its latest survey of traders and investors on website. In line with survey results on July 10, the most likely scenario is that they key rate is cut by 75bps to 10.5% on Friday. As noted yesterday on Friday’s decision, there are a couple of analysts calling for both a 50bp and a 100bp cut which shows the decision is by no means a foregone conclusion.
  • There were some adjustments to expectations further out in the latest BCCh traders survey. The key rate is now seen at 8.50% two meetings ahead compared to a prior 8.75%, and 7.00% four meetings ahead compared to a prior forecast of 7.25%. Furthermore interest rate is seen at 5.25% in 12 months, once again 25bps below the prior forecast of 5.50%.
  • Of note on inflation, CPI is now expected to be 3.2% Y/y in twelve months, down from 3.3% in the prior survey.
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