MNI: RIKSBANK LEAVES KEY RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.75%

MNI BRIEF: China To Hold Key Third Plenum On July 15-18

MNI Brief: China Third Plenum To Deepen Reforms

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY80 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY100 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1270 Thurs; -0.78% Y/Y

External Demand An Upside Risk to Riksbank Rate Path

BOE Financial Stability Report due at 10:30BST

Modest SEK Weakening Post Riksbank; High Chance Of August Cut

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Trading On A Strong Note After Weaker Than Expected Export Prices

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM +5.0) are dealing on a strong note after the release of Q2 terms of trade data. Australia's export prices fell more than economists expected in Q2. Export prices fell 8.5% q/q (estimate -6.7%). The ``fall in the Export Price Index is the largest quarterly fall since the September quarter 2009, largely due to a strong drop in global energy demand,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics. Import prices also fell in Q2, -0.8% q/q, in line with estimates.

  • Cash ACGBs are 5-6bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -3bp at +10bp.
  • Swap rates are 6bp lower with EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip bull flattens with pricing +1 to +7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bp softer across meetings. A 26% chance of a 25bp hike in August is priced. Terminal rate expectations continue to soften after yesterday’s Q2 CPI undershoot. The expected terminal rate sits at 4.31% versus 4.45% ahead of the CPI data.
  • The Australian economy will expand by 1.5% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News. (See link)
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.