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TRANSPORTATION: bpost (NR/A-/NR) FV

TRANSPORTATION
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(51% owned by Belgian state)

Despite the above €26s seem to have a low beta to fundamentals (even in past rough years) instead trading to ratings/govvie uplift. French USO, La Poste (NR/A/A+) has traded tight to it. France state is rated Aa2/AA-/AA- largely in-line with Belgium but FRPTT standalone at S&P is 1-notch higher at BBB with it receiving a similar 3-notch uplift for the net higher rating. A stake sell-down may have less impact on it as well given current 100% French state ownership. We spread it outside the FRPTT curve for those reasons. We do NOT see value at FV, IPT is indicative of NIC's being handed out.

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(51% owned by Belgian state)

Despite the above €26s seem to have a low beta to fundamentals (even in past rough years) instead trading to ratings/govvie uplift. French USO, La Poste (NR/A/A+) has traded tight to it. France state is rated Aa2/AA-/AA- largely in-line with Belgium but FRPTT standalone at S&P is 1-notch higher at BBB with it receiving a similar 3-notch uplift for the net higher rating. A stake sell-down may have less impact on it as well given current 100% French state ownership. We spread it outside the FRPTT curve for those reasons. We do NOT see value at FV, IPT is indicative of NIC's being handed out.

Keep reading...Show less