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TRANSPORTATION: Deutsche Post (DHLGR; A1/NR/A-) Profit Warning

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"*DEUTSCHE POST SEES FY EBIT ABOVE EU5.8B, SAW EU6B TO EU6.6B" - bbg

  • consensus somewhat saw it coming (at €6b)
  • Note at its CMD it said it is targeting "BBB+ to A-' rating vs. current A-flat rating (Moody's) and noted the headroom there - we see it pushing that up on a combination of equity pay-outs & M&A.
  • The German Development bank, KFW, reduced it stake to 17% earlier this year. Moody's no longer considers it a government related issuer = lower assumption of gov. support - but still factors it as support for A2 ratings.

1k denoms keep the curve perennially tight 

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"*DEUTSCHE POST SEES FY EBIT ABOVE EU5.8B, SAW EU6B TO EU6.6B" - bbg

  • consensus somewhat saw it coming (at €6b)
  • Note at its CMD it said it is targeting "BBB+ to A-' rating vs. current A-flat rating (Moody's) and noted the headroom there - we see it pushing that up on a combination of equity pay-outs & M&A.
  • The German Development bank, KFW, reduced it stake to 17% earlier this year. Moody's no longer considers it a government related issuer = lower assumption of gov. support - but still factors it as support for A2 ratings.

1k denoms keep the curve perennially tight