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Treasures Bear Flatten Ahead of CPI

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bear flattened this morning ahead of US CPI, which has seen 2Y yields extend to new highs since Mar’20.
  • UST moves are very much in line with core Europe this morning in 10Y space although a higher front end of the curve has been confined to the US.
  • 2Y yields are +3.1bps at 0.719%, 5Y +2.3bps at 1.291%, 10Y +1.4bps at 1.513% and 30Y at +0.4bps at 1.880%.
  • TYH2 futures are down 8+ ticks today at 130-04, towards the lows of the post-Omicron range. This takes it below the 20-day EMA of 130-08+ and highlights potential for a deeper pullback to perhaps 129-24+ (61.8% retracement of Nov24-Dec3 rally).
  • The CPI Nov report dominates data today, with the Bloomberg median for core at 0.5% M/M but a survey range implying some upside risk to that.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 7Y-10Y, appr $2.825B (1030ET).
  • No issuance today.
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