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Treasuries Bear Steepen With European Sell-Off

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bear steepened in a continuation of a move that has largely been one directional since open. The sell-off reverses yesterday’s rally at the short end whilst longer tenors clear yesterday’s range with the 10Y back to Mar 29 levels.
  • Drivers are unclear but Treasuries lag moves seen in Europeans aside from Bunds.
  • 2YY +5.1bps at 2.473%, 5YY +6.9bps at 2.619%, 10YY +7.4bps at 2.469% and 30YY +7.2bps at 2.528%, pushing 2s10s almost back to zero having been inverted since payrolls on Friday.
  • TYM2 sits 13 ticks lower at 121-22 with volumes again sluggish after yesterday’s subdued session. A bearish theme dominates with the bear trigger at 120-30+ (Mar 28 low) whilst initial resistance is eyed at 123-04 (Mar 31 high).
  • Fedspeak: Brainard (voter), Daly (2024) and Williams (voter) all speak today, with Brainard for the first time since the March FOMC.
  • Data: International trade (0830ET) before the finalised Service/Comp PMI (0945ET) and the fresh ISM Services (1000ET) for March. The Eurozone service PMI was stronger than expected but also with record highs for both input costs and output prices.
  • No issuance.
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