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Treasuries Drift Richer On Very Light Volumes Pre-PCE

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are close to session highs, sitting 2-3bps richer, having more than retraced an initial overnight cheapening with some support from negative UK GDP revisions appearing to outweigh stronger retail sales data.
  • 2s have remained within yesterday’s range throughout whilst subsequent benchmarks had briefly drifted lower but are now back firmly within it.
  • TYH4 trades close to the day’s high of 112-28+ on particularly low volumes of just 150k. The trend needle still points north, near initial resistance at yesterday’s high of 113-04+ after which lies 113-12+ (Fibo projection of Oct-Nov price swing).
  • Today’s docket is heavily data-focused, led by the monthly PCE report for Nov at 0830ET after yesterday’s Q3 data saw core PCE inflation revised down sharply from 2.3% to 2.0% annualized in the third reading. Recall Chair Powell saw it at 3.1% Y/Y in Nov and the median FOMC participant looks for 3.2% in 4Q23.
  • Other releases: Preliminary durable goods Nov (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Dec final (1000ET) New home sales Nov (1000ET), Kansas City Services Dec (1100ET)
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