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Treasuries Firm With Potential Russian Escalation and EU Gas Curbs

US TSYS
  • After a steady overnight despite a further increase in China’s daily Covid-19 cases, Treasuries have followed European sovereigns higher this morning as European rate expectations have been trimmed and the EU proposes voluntary natural gas consumption curbs.
  • The move is driven further by risk-off inducing comments from Russia’s Lavrov seemingly increasing the threat of escalation, with Russia’s geographical objectives to be advanced even further if the west delivers long-range weapons to Kyiv, and with its objectives already changed from just DPR and LNR to a number of other territories.
  • 2YY -6.7bps at 3.171%, 5YY -5.7bps at 3.099%, 10YY -5.2bps at 2.969%, 30YY =3.6bps at 3.138%.
  • TYU2 sits 12+ ticks higher at 118-11+ back towards the top end of yesterday’s range but still not troubling resistance at 119-06 (Jul 13 high). Volumes are broadly in line with average.
  • Data: Housing focused with weekly MBA mortgage apps (1200ET) and existing home sales for June (1000ET)
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $14B 20Y Bond auction re-open (912810TH1) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 119D-bill CMB auction – 1130ET
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