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Treasuries Flattening Continues

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have twist flattened as they continue to adjust to the strong CPI print and Bullard adding to market hiking fears, tempered by a subsequent interview with Daly downplaying her view on the need a 50bp hike. Barkin added he needs to be convinced of the need for 50bps although hopes rates return to pre-Covid levels “relatively quickly”.
  • 2s10s of 40bps are the flattest since Aug 2020 whilst 5s30s of 34bps are the flattest since Oct 2018.
  • 2YY +0.9bps at 1.588%, 5YY -2.8bps at 1.923%, 10YY -3.0bps at 2.000% and 30YY -3.7bps at 2.269%.
  • TYH2 is at the high end of today’s range at 126-00+, off from yesterday’s low of 125-17+ but far below the 126-26 prior to CPI. Volumes sit 25% above average.
  • U.Mich consumer survey at 1000ET with focus no doubt on the inflation expectations component.
  • No scheduled Fedspeak ahead but plenty of potential for unscheduled appearances.
  • The NY Fed’s operational purchase schedule is updated at 1500ET.
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