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Treasuries Follow EGBs Cheaper, Jobless Claims and 30Y Supply On Docket

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have pushed lower overnight despite nearer-term Fed rates sitting little unchanged, again following a larger sell-off in EGBs whilst crude oil extends yesterday’s recovery.
  • Cash yields sit 1-2.5bps higher, bear steepening with 2s10s at -33.7bps (+0.4bps).
  • TYM4 sits at 108-21+ off an earlier low of 108-19+ on slightly above average volumes of 305k. It steps closer to support at 108-16+ (20-day EMA) as it moves away from tightly packed resistance at 109-06+ (Channel top from Feb 1 high), 109-08+ (50-day EMA) and 109-09+ (May 3 high).
  • The BoE rate decision could offer some spillover early on before attention turns to jobless claims and then later on issuance, with 30Y supply after yesterday’s 10Y tailed by 1bp but was otherwise relatively well received.
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Daly in a fireside chat (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $25B 30Y auction - 912810UA0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 4W and 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)
  • Speaking for the first time on the balance sheet since Oct, NY Fed’s SOMA Manager Perli said yesterday that slowing runoff represents an important and prudent step. Indicators currently point toward abundant reserves but uncertainty about their abundance is a reason to slow now. Asset runoff has been smooth but can’t take it for granted. Remarks here.
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