Treasuries have ticked a little.....>

US TSYS SUMMARY: Treasuries have ticked a little higher to open the week on thin

volumes, with the FOMC decision remaining the one to watch.

- Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 5.5/32 at 127-12.5 (L: 127-09 / H: 127-13).

- Curve a little flatter, 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 1.8439%, 5-Yr down 0.7bps

at 1.8403%, 10-Yr down 1.4bps at 2.0563%, 30-Yr down 1.6bps at 2.5761%.

- FOMC decision Wednesday the obvious focus later this week. Our full preview

(with 30+ analysts' notes summaries) will be out this afternoon U.S. time.

- MNI PINCH currently attributes a 100.0% implied probability of a 25bps Fed

Funds cut at the July meeting, with a 36.7% probability of a 50bps cut. 75bps of

cuts are fully priced through the January meeting (though very nearly priced in

for Dec), with 100bps cumulatively priced in by the September 2020 meeting.

- In the meantime, trade watch is on, with TR Lighthizer & Tsy Sec Mnuchin

heading to Shanghai to meet with the Chinese delegation led by VP Liu on Tues.

- Most interesting developments overnight were trade related (of the block

variety); Saw weighted EDU9 in 19k v TYU9 in 6k just before midnight EST.

- Whites and Reds EDs a little stronger, up 2.0-2.5 ticks.