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Treasuries Lag Europe With Light Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade little changed on the day having firmed through Asia hours before cheapening as they lagged larger moves in European sovereigns on headlines that the ECB will discuss the possibility of a 50bp hike in Thursday’s meeting plus confirmation of strong CPI inflation in June.
  • The minimal twist steepening on the day doesn’t really change the overall picture, with 2s10s holding at -18bps for levels last seen in 2000, whilst the shorter-term 3M to 10Y spread at +50bps holds at a relatively more elevated level but is still back at Mar’20 levels.
  • 2YY -0.4bps at 3.170%, 5YY -0.3bps at 3.100%, 10YY +0.4bps at 2.989%, 30YY +0.8bps at 3.164%.
  • TYU2 sits 7+ ticks higher at 118-07+ on slightly below average volumes. The recent pullback is still considered corrective with the short-term trend viewed as bullish, with initial resistance eyed at 119-06 (Jul 13 high) and support at 117-18 (Jul 8 low).
  • Data: Housing starts/building permits for June (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Still in blackout but VC Brainard speaks on the community reinvestment act (1430ET)
  • No issuance today
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