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Treasuries Little Changed Ahead Of US PCE Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are little changed ahead of the US core PCE data later tonight. TU is -0.125 at 101-25.125, after hitting a session high of 101-25.75, while TY did briefly trade above Thursday's highs, however now trade little changed at 108-18.
  • Volumes: TU 44.5k, FV 80.5k TY 110k
  • Tsys flow: 2/5/10 Block, buyer FV on the fly in 636k DV01.
  • Cash treasury curve is little change, yields are flat to 0.5bps lower. The 2Y unchanged at 4.925% while the 10Y -0.2bp at 4.544%.
  • US overnight indexed swaps are now pricing more than 80% odds for a 25bps rate cut in November
  • Local rates market: ACGB yield are 3-5bps lower, 5yr supply was well supported, NZGBs are 6-10bps lower as market digests the budget and following strong auction results across 7, 10 & 15yr tenors, while JGBs are 1-3bps higher, with the 10Y yield at 1.069% just off recent highs.
  • Looking ahead; PCE, Personal Income/Spending and MNI's Chicago PMI, while Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic will speak.
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