Treasuries Little React To Data & Fed Speak, Durable Good Later

Treasuries Futures pushed lower all throughout the Monday session, just off daily lows heading into the end of the NY session. Treasuries firmed slightly on Fed's Bostic comments, where he repeated comments from Friday around just the 1 rate cut for the year, while there was little reaction to the lower than expected New Home Sales at 662k vs. 675k est (prior up-revised to 664k from 661k), MoM -0.3% vs. 2.1% est (prior up-revised to 1.7% from 1.5%).

• Jun'24 10Y futures finished just off daily lows of 110-15 at 110-17+, and we open in line with those levels as trading kicks off in Asia on Tuesday. Despite a move off recent lows, treasuries maintain a softer tone and the latest move higher is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend
• Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low), to the upside resistance holds at 110-30+ (Mar 21 & 22 high), above here 111-00+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
• Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Monday officials must cautiously balance the risk of easing monetary policy too much or too soon, allowing inflation to linger above target, and taking too long to ease, which could harm the economy needlessly and deprive people of economic opportunities.
• Projected rate cut pricing continued to cool: May 2024 at -12.9% vs. -14.5% this morning w/ cumulative -3.2bp at 5.296%; June 2024 -65.8% vs. -66.7% w/ cumulative rate cut -19.7bp at 5.132%. July'24 cumulative at -30.6bp vs. -32.0bp.
• Looking ahead: Later today Durable & Capital Goods Orders