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Treasuries Rally As Breakevens Slide

US TSYS
  • The sharp reversal in Tsys has come after the 2Y yield cleared new highs above 2.45% on the initial move in response to more positive headlines between Russia-Ukraine talks.
  • The belly had led yields higher on the way up and does the same on the way down, along with the 10Y with both now down -5bps on the day.
  • Potentially in response to lower inflationary pressure from a pulling back in the conflict, evidenced by lower oil, nominal yields are dragged lower by a slide in inflation expectations.
  • The 5Y breakeven has dropped 13bps to 3.52%, the lowest since Mar 17 (and more than 20bps down from yesterday's highs), whilst the 10Y breakeven is 9bp lower at 2.87% and equally relatively low.

5Y nominal yield (white), breakeven (yellow) and real yield (green)Source: Bloomberg

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