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Treasuries Rally Back On Growth Concerns As Attention Turns To ECB, Powell

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a sizeable rally on softer growth fears, with yields helped lower early from continued China lockdowns, the latest being Chengdu extending lockdowns from tomorrow, which have coincided with oil woes. Not a direct driver but supportive of the move has been the Fed’s Beige Book more recently showing weak growth expectations over the next six to twelve months, along with at the margin a downward revision for Atlanta Fed GDPNow from 2.6% to 1.4% for Q3.
  • September FOMC pricing slightly remains up on the day at 69bps after the earlier WSJ’s Timiraos piece leaning to a 75bp rather than 50bp hike but the terminal sees a modest trimming to 3.91% in Mar’23 from highs of 3.96%.
  • Yields remain within yesterday’s even larger range though, with 2YY -6.2bps at 3.441, 5YY -8.8bps at 3.364%, 10YY -8.0bps at 3.269% and 30YY -8.8bps at 3.413%.
  • TYZ2 trades 17 ticks higher at 116-04, pulling back after yesterday’s clearance of a bear trigger and today’s further low of 115-13+. The recent trend has been downward, but should today’s upward momentum continue, resistance is seen at 116-26 (Sep 2 high).
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