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Treasuries Rally On External Factors With Powell Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have unwound a large part of yesterday’s sell-off, with spillover first from a dovish RBA overnight and then more recently EGBs after a sharp pullback in the ECB monthly consumer inflation expectations survey.
  • 2YY -3.5bp at 4.851%, 5YY -3.3bp at 4.219%, 10YY -3.3bp at 3.925% and 30YY -3.4bp at 3.859%. 2s10s of -92.5bps sit fractionally off fresh multi-decade lows.
  • TYM3 trades 11+ ticks higher at 111-11, just off highs of 111-12 but with volumes fading recently whilst awaiting Powell. Resistance is seen at 111-23+ (Feb 28 high) and then 112-03 (Feb 24 high) whilst support is at the bear trigger of 110-12+ (Mar 2 low).
  • Fedspeak: Powell is due to start speaking in the Senate at 1000ET but no set time to potential pre-release of remarks and with mixed historical precedent.
  • Data: Wholesale trade sales/inventories for Jan/Jan final (1000ET), Consumer credit for Jan (1500ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (91282CGR6) – 1300ET
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