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Treasuries Retreat To Little Changed Ahead Of Solid Session

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys currently sit little changed having rallied overnight before cheapening with spillover from sizeable moves in EU FI, helped by a BOE spokesperson reiterating the end to the bond-buying program on Friday. PPI inflation and FOMC minutes headline today - albeit firmly with an eye on tomorrow’s CPI – with additional interest in 10Y supply after yesterday's brief attempt north of 4% for 10YY.
  • 2YY -0.6bps at 4.3%, 5YY +0.5bps at 4.176%, 10YY +1.5bps at 3.962%, and 30YY +2.1bps at 3.944%.
  • TYZ2 trades 3 ticks lower at 111-01+ having just touched session lows of 110-31 but remains within yesterday’s range. Volumes are moderately above average. Support continues to be the bear trigger of 110-19 ((Sep 28 low) whilst to the upside resistance is 112-30 (20-day EMA).
  • Data: PPI inflation (0830ET) with ex food & energy seen dipping a tenth to 0.3% M/M and ex food, energy & trade unchanged at 0.2% M/M, both close to early 2021 lows as producer costs moderate. Focus is more heavily on tomorrow’s US CPI
  • Fed: FOMC minutes headline at 1400ET, also see Kashkari (1000ET), Barr (1345ET) and Bowman (1830ET)
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $32B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CFF3) – 1300ET

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