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Treasuries Surge On European Banking Fears

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys surge, led by the front end for a sizeable bull steepening, on spillover from European banks coming under increasing pressure since the open. It sees this week’s decision to hike 25bp to 4.75-5% increasingly viewed as the peak for the cycle with cut expectations mounting. Upcoming data likely take a second seat with market reaction skewed more keenly to downside surprises.
  • Off extremes but still see 2YY -22.1bp at 3.612%, 5YY -17.1bp at 3.268%, 10YY -13.0bp at 3.295% and 30YY -9.1bp at 3.607%. 2s10s sit at -30bps having briefly marked their steepest levels since Oct’22 with -28.5bps.
  • TYM3 trades 27+ ticks higher at 116-27 off a high of 117-01+. It opens 117-14+ (high Aug 29/30, 2022) having cleared key resistance at 116-28+ (Jan 19 high) and briefly 117-00 (61.8% retrace of Aug-Oct 22 bear leg (cont)). Cumulative volumes have accelerated to 515k for the day in a sizeable uptick since the European open after a subdued Asian session.
  • Fedspeak: Bullard (non-voter) set to give the first post-FOMC remarks at 0930ET
  • Data: Focus on Durable goods Feb prelim (0830ET) and S&P Mfg & Service PMI Mar prelim (0945ET), but also see wholesale inventories revisions plus the KC Fed service activity index.

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