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Treasuries Underperform With Fedspeak, GDP and 7Y Supply Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit richer with yields 2-3bps lower across the curve, only partly unwinding yesterday’s large cheapening that had been helped by US data resilience. The move started in Asia hours with a weaker USD seemingly providing a very modest bid for the space before more mixed European hours as the German Ifo survey beat expectations but with recession risks still prominent.
  • Treasuries underperform European sovereigns after yesterday's wide ranges, heading into Jackson Hole where a dovish pivot from Powell tomorrow is unlikely (full preview).
  • 2YY -2.9bps at 3.362%, 5YY -2.4bps at 3.181%, 10YY -2.2bps at 3.082% and 30YY -1.9bps 3.293%.
  • TYU2 rises 4+ ticks at 117-13 to further rise off late yesterday low of 117-03+ but maintains a bearish tone, with more significant support eyed at 116-26+ (Jun 29 low).
  • Fedspeak: Harker ('23 voter) speaks to MNI at 0925ET, CNBC at 1000ET for first time on mon pol matters since Jun 22, with potential for further pop-up appearances from other regional presidents.
  • Data: 2nd Q2 GDP, Kansas City Fed mfg index (Empire & Richmond have seen sizeable declines, Philly a beat) plus weekly initial claims.
  • Note issuance: $37B 7Y Note auction (91282CFJ5) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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