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Treasury Curve Continues Bull-Steepen Theme Post FOMC

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures briefly made new lows post FOMC of 110-01+, before recovering to close the day at 110-14. Two hours into trading on Thursday the and the 10Y is slightly higher at 110-14 up +01, just below morning highs of 110-16, while the 5Y is up +00 ¾ at 106-30¾.
  • Looking at technical levels: The 10Y traded lower Monday piercing 109-25+, reinforcing a bearish theme. A clear break of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December levels to watch to the downside 109-24+ (Mar 18 low), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low), while to the upside initial resistance is seen at 110-24 (20-day EMA), while above here 111-02 (50-day EMA), a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high),
  • Treasury curves bull steepened on Wednesday with yields finishing 2-9bps lower. As Japan returns from their day off on Wednesday cash treasuries are continuing that overnight trend with the 2Y now -1.7bps to 4.585%, 10Y -0.8bps to 4.267%, while the 2y10y is +1.106 to -32.058.
  • Looking ahead: focus turns to Thursday's Wkly Claims, S&P Global US PMIs, Home Sales. Fed VC Barr fireside chat "View from the Fed", Q&A at 1200ET.
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