Treasury Futures Edge Lower, 10Y Yield Makes New YTD Highs

Treasuries futures continued to retreat Tuesday on heavy volumes (TYM4 >1.9M) as Europe returned from extended Easter holiday weekend. Intermediate to long end rates held near the middle of the day's range following this morning's slightly higher than expected JOLTS job openings at 8.756m (cons 8.73m) in Feb after an downward revised 8.748m (initial 8.86m) in Jan. The ratio to unemployed fell to 1.36x, helped by the strong 0.33m rise in unemployment in Feb.

• Jun'24 10Y hit a low of 109-14+ breaking below initial support and briefly tapping the Nov 28 lows, the 10Y reversed some of those moves to finish the session at 109-24 just below initial support. As trading gets underway in Asia we are up 01+, back at the Mar 18 lows and initial support of 109-24+.
• Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (March 18 low and bear trigger) while below here the 109-14+ (Nov 28 low /Mar 2 low) a move back below here would open a move to 109-12+ (1.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-29+/31+ (50-day EMA / Mar 27 high), above here 111-10+ (Mar 13 high).
• Cash Treasury curve bear-steepened again on Tuesday, with yields 1.6bps lower to 5bps higher. The 2Y yield was -1.6bps at 4.689%, 10Y +4bps to 4.349%, while the 2y10y +5.639 at -34.175
• Fed speakers supported short end rates on the day: Cleveland Fed Mester ('24 voter but retiring in June) won't rule out a rate cut in June, while SF Fed Daly said three rate cuts in 2024 is still a "reasonable baseline".
• Projected rate cut pricing rebounded from morning lows: May 2024 steady at -6.7% w/ cumulative -1.7bp at 5.312%; June 2024 -59.7% vs -53.3% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -16.6bp at 5.163%. July'24 cumulative at -24.6bp vs -23.6bp earlier, Sep'24 cumulative -41.9 vs. -40.0bp
• Looking Ahead: ADP Jobs, S&P Global US Services/Composite PMIs (final), ISM Services and multiple Fed Speakers through the session.