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Treasury Futures Edge Lower Erase All Fridays Gains, 2Y Yield Now 5%

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures have slipped in early on Monday, down - 08 at 107-21, and has now erased the gains made on the Israel/Iran conflict from Friday, initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury yields have opened 1-3bps higher, with the belly of the curve the weakest, the 2Y yield is +1.5bps at 5.001%, 10Y +2.1bps to 4.641%, while the 2y10y was +0.770 at -36.167.
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 2-4bps higher, ACGBs are 6-8bps higher and JGBs are 1-2bps higher
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
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