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Treasury Futures Edge Lower On Higher Flash PMIs

US TSYS
  • Treasuries finished Friday trading a touch weaker following mixed global PMI levels. Treasuries initially extended support after soft French, German and Eurozone composite flash PMIs during early London hours -- but gapped lower after slightly higher than expected US flash PMIs. TUU4 ended the session -0-00¼ at 102-06⅛, while TYU4 ended trading -0-01+ at 110-16, as trading kicks off on Monday we are a touch lower again.
  • A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play. The recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation that reinforces the bullish theme. Support at 109-22+ (50-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 109-00+ (Jun 10 low), to the upside resistance lays at 111-01 (June 14 high) a break here would open a move to 111-09 (Apr 1 high)
  • Cash treasury curve was little changed on Friday, the 2Y -0.5bps at 4.732%, 5Y unchanged at 4.274% while the 10Y was -0.4bps at 4.255%, the 2y10y was +0.101 at -48.101
  • Data: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51 est, Services PMI 55.1 vs 54.0, Composite 54.6 vs 53.5, Leading Index -0.5% vs -0.3%, Existing Home Sales 4.11m vs 4.10m est
  • Projected rate cut pricing remains steady to mildly lower vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.6bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.8bp), Dec'24 -46.7bp (-47.2bp).
  • Looking ahead, Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
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