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Treasury Futures Off Earlier Lows Ahead Of US PMIs

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have moved off session lows and trade only slightly lower on the day. TUU4 is -0-00¾ at 102-05⅝ after making a low of 102-05, while TYU4 is -0-02+ at 110-15, after earlier reaching a low of 110-12+, we trade well within yesterday's ranges.
  • Volumes are on the low side today with TU 17k, FV 29k, TY 52k
  • The cash treasury curve is little changed, yields are flat to 0.5bp lower, with the 2Y +0.1bp at 4.749%, 5Y unch at 4.274% while the 10Y is -0.2bp at 4.257%.
  • APAC: ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper, curve steeper. NZGBs are 2-3bps cheaper while JGBs are 1-3bps cheaper, better selling seen through the belly. The JPY continues to weaken and is now trading back around 159.00.
  • Fed's Thomas Barkin stated he needs more clarity on inflation before supporting interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of sustained progress towards the Fed’s 2% target and suggesting that current conditions do not warrant forward guidance on future policy adjustments. He reiterated that the Fed's policy is well-positioned and that any rate cuts would be data-dependent.
  • Looking ahead, S&P Flash PMIs, Leading Index, Home Sales.
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