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Treasury Futures Off Intraday Highs, Job Claims & Home Sales

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures broke above Wednesday's higher earlier making a high of 108-09+, we are just off those levels at 108-07+ up + 02+ from NY closing levels. Earlier there was a 2/5/30 Fly block trade, while a 2y/10y block flattener has traded.
  • Cash Treasury yields have reversed earlier moves and now trade 1-2bps lower, the 2Y yield -0.8bps at 4.924%, 10Y -1.6bps to 4.571%, while the 2y10y is -0.822 at -35.519
  • (MNI) Fed Well-Positioned To Wait, Gather Data - Mester (See Link)
  • Earlier, Fed's Bowman acknowledges that progress on inflation has slowed, if not stalled, despite strong economic conditions and ongoing job growth, suggesting that current monetary policy may be restrictive, but its sufficiency remains uncertain. He notes that consumers may be adjusting spending habits, trading down to lower goods while also spending large amounts on experiences like travel.
  • Projected rate cut pricing steady vs. late Tuesday levels: May 2024 steady at -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 steady at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at -12.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -24.9bp.
  • Looking ahead: Weekly Claims, Exist Home Sales, Fed Speak from NY Fed Williams, Atlanta Fed Bostic and Boston Fed Collins.
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