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Treasury Futures Spike On High Volumes, Yields 1-2bps Lower

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures gapped higher earlier, while volumes spiked with about 21,000 contracts trading inside a minute, there was little in the way of market catalyst, the 10y contract hit a high of 110-23+ and has now settled back at 110-20+ up + 04 for the day, while the 5Y contract moved higher in unison with the spike in the 10Y however volume remained in line with prior days, the 5Y contract trades up + 02 at 107-00, from a high of 107-02
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low), to the upside resistance holds at 110-30+ (Mar 21 & 22 high), above here 111-00+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
  • Cash treasuries are slightly flatter today with yields 1-2bps lower, the 2yr is -0.9bps at 4.617% while the 10yr is -1.6bp to 4.230%
  • Looking ahead: Later today Durable & Capital Goods Orders
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