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Treasury Futures Steady, Ranges Tight

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures have opened largely unchanged and have been trading in a very tight range post US data on Tuesday, we trade just below initial support of 109-24+, at 109-24, in signs a retest of the Tuesday low of 109-14+ may be in play.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (March 18 low and bear trigger) while below here the 109-14+ (Nov 28 low /Mar 2 low) a move back below here would open a move to 109-12+ (1.764 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-29+/31+ (50-day EMA / Mar 27 high), above here 111-10+ (Mar 13 high).
  • Cash Treasury curve twist-steepened again on Tuesday, as trading gets underway on Wednesday yields are slightly higher with the 2Y yield +0.6bps at 4.695%, 10Y +1bps to 4.359%, while the 2y10y +0.374 at -34.801
  • Looking Ahead: ADP Jobs, S&P Global US Services/Composite PMIs (final), ISM Services and multiple Fed Speakers through the session.
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