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Treasury Futures Steady, Volumes Low Ahead Of US CPI

US TSYS
  • It has been a very quiet session here in Asia, volumes are low, while ranges have been very tight and trade just off the overnight highs, the 10Y contract trades down ( - 00+) at 109-02+, initial resistance is 109-06+/08+ (Channel top from Feb 1 high / 50-day EMA), while the 2Y trades at 101-22.875 down (- 00.25).
  • Cash Treasuries are 0.5bp higher to 0.5bp lower, the curve slightly flatter. The 2Y yield +0.4bps at 4.819%, 10Y unchanged at 4.439%, while 2y10y is -0.829 at -38.565
  • US CPI will be the focus today, a upside surprise will dial up concerns that the Q1 acceleration wasn’t just a bump and could see 2Y Treasury yields eye 5% again, with the start point to Fed cuts pushed further out amidst a still high bar to a rate hike, while a downside surprise would still see sensitivity but the onus is on multiple low inflation readings before cut expectations are meaningfully brought nearer.
  • U.S. CPI Preview: May 2024 MNI View: Testing Persistence Of Q1 “Bump” In Disinflation Path - (See link)
  • Looking Ahead: Busy session today with MBA Mortgage Applications, Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales & CPI while ECB's Rehn, Muller, Villeroy & Makhlouf and Fed's Kashkari & Bowman are due to speak.
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