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Treasury Futures Test Tuesday's Highs Ahead Of CPI

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures has seen low volumes and remained in tight ranges, lows of 109-19+ were made during the morning session, before edging higher were we have been testing the highs from Tuesday of 109-23, currently the contract is up + 02 from NY closing levels at 109-22+.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-00 (round number support), a break here would open up a move to 108-25+ (2.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-06 (Apr 4 high), above here 110-24+/31+ (50-day EMA / Mar 27 high and key resistance)
  • Cash Treasury curve has is a touch flatter today with the 2Y yield -0.6bp at 4.737%, 10Y -0.6bp to 4.356%, while the 2y10y +0.180 at -38.486.
  • Cross markets, NZGBs yields are 1-3bps lower post the RBNZ decision to be 5-9bps lower on the day, while ACGBs yields are 3-8bps lower
  • Looking Ahead: MBA Mortgage Applications, CPI and March FOMC minutes later today.
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