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Treasury Futures Trade Steady Ahead Of Busy Day Of Fed Speaker

US TSYS
  • Ranges have been very tight and we trade near overnight lows. The 2Y contract is unchanged at 101-21.375, while the 10Y contract is (- 02) at 109-01.
  • Volumes: TU 30k, FV 39k, TY 60k
  • Tsys Flows: Block seller of 1.8k FV, Block Steepener 9k TU | 2.5k US
  • Looking at technicals, support holds at 108-27+/108-15 (50-day EMA / May 14 low), while resistance holds at 109-31+ (May 16 high)
  • The treasury curve is slightly steeper today, yields are flat to 1.5bps lower, the 2Y yield is -1.3bps at 4.835%, 10Y -0.2bp to 4.441%, while the 2y10y +1.093 at -39.783
  • Looking across APAC rate markets: ACGBs are 1.5-2bps higher, NZGBs flat to 2.5bps higher, curve is steeper, JGBs yields are flat to 1bps higher
  • Rate cut projections have receded vs. this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut -1.2bp at 5.318%, July'24 at -20% w/ cumulative at -6.3bp (-7.5bp) at 5.267%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.6bp (-20.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.1bp (-29bp), Dec'24 -41.5bp (-43.9bp).
  • Busy day ahead for fed speakers with Barkin, Waller, Williams, Collins, Bostic & Barr all speaking
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