Treasury’s Marketable Borrowing Estimates Coming Up

• Treasury’s Marketable Borrowing Estimates are released shortly at 1500ET.
• For context, the last set showed an expectation of $776B of net borrowing in the Oct-Dec 2023 quarter, with an end-Dec cash balance of $750B (actually ended at $769B) – a downgrade of $76B vs the previous announcement.
• For the quarter of Jan-Mar 2024, Treasury 3 months ago pencilled in $816B in borrowing with an end-March cash balance of $750B (coming alongside assumptions of SOMA redemptions of around $170B per quarter as Fed QT continued apace).

Some sellside estimates:

• JPMorgan: $855B in net marketable borrowing needs in the Jan-Mar quarter (end-quarter cash balance of $750B), falling to $263B in Apr-Jun (end-quarter cash of $775B) – but note risks to the upside given Treasury will likely assume Fed QT continues at $60B/month (vs JPM looking for the Fed to slow Treasury runoff by half in April and to end altogether by November).
• SocGen: $858B in Jan-Mar, with Apr-Jun coming in at $260B.
• Deutsche Bank are lower than those for Q1 but higher for Q2: $797B in Jan-Mar (end-quarter cash balance of $750B) but $472B in Apr-Jun with cash ending at $800B. They see SOMA redemptions picking up to $197B in Apr-Jun on account of timing shifts for settlement dates across quarters.