US
In the latest omnibus opinion poll from Echelon Insights, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 2pp. The fieldwork for this poll took place 19-21 July, with Echelon stating that the poll was conducted "after the RNC and before Joe Biden dropped out of the race". Republican candidate Trump wins the overall backing of 49% of respondents, compared to 47% backing Democratic frontrunner Harris. Four per cent of respondents were unsure.
- In the previous Echelon Insights poll carried out 15-18 July, Harris led Trump by 46% to 44%, with 10% saying that they were unsure.
- Among the respondents, 40% said they would definitely vote for Trump, with 9% saying they would probably back the Republican. This compares to 36% saying they would definitely back Harris, with 11% leaning her way. It remains to be seen what impact Biden's withdrawal and Harris' elevation to Democrat frontrunner has on public opinion and awareness now that Trump vs Harris is not a hypothetical but probable match-up.
- Given the distribution of votes within the electoral college (where states with a lower population-to-EC vote ratio tend to lean Republican), a 2% advantage for a GOP candidate if translated into nationwide vote share would likely be enough to secure the White House.
Chart 1. Poll, 'If the presidential election wre being held today, would you vote for...', %
Source: Echelon Insights. N.b. Sample 982 registered voters, MoE +/-3.8%
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