US: Trump Return To White House Triggers Reversal In Partisan Views Of Economy

A new survey from Galluphas shown a “near-complete reversal” in the overall Economic Confidence Index score for Republicans and Democrats, since Trump assumed office in January.  

• Gallup notes: “Although the ECI remains unchanged at -19, underlying partisan shifts illustrate a more dynamic picture, as Republicans and Democrats reset their expectations for the direction of the economy given likely economic policy shifts under a new presidential administration.
• “The two major parties’ scores are likely to diverge further in the coming months as partisans increasingly tie the state of the U.S. economy to Trump’s administration and its policies rather than to Biden’s.”
• The partisan shift may suggest an erosion of support for Trump amongst independents who backed his re-election. The Washington Post reported on Thursday: "Multiple polls this week have shown his approval rating dropping into more normal territory for him, in the mid-40s. And a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll crystallizes a number of warning signs for Trump’s agenda."

Figure 1: Outlook for the Economy, by Party, 2024-2025, “Net economic outlook score (% getting better minus % getting worse)”