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The final poll from J. Ann Seltzer at the Des Moines Register/NBC before today's Iowa caucuses has found that although, Trump’s polling lead over nearest challenger Nikki Haley has shrunk slightly, he remains positioned to pull off a comfortable victory.
- Edit: Typo in bullet headline corrected
- The poll finds Trump leading at first preference of 48% of likely caucusgoers, down from 51% in December.
- However, Selzer writes: "The deep data on [Haley] suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night," noting that, while Haley has surpassed DeSantis, “most of the rest of the data here is not good news.”
- Politico notes that, Selzer was particularly surprised at the enthusiasm gap between Haley’s voters and Trump’s voters: Only 39% of Haley’s voters were “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic,” while that number was 89% for Trump’s voters.
- Selzer said those enthusiasm numbers for Haley “are on the edge of jaw-dropping” and “at odds with a candidate moving up.”
- The Hill notes that, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a Trump ally, says it will be all over if Trump wins Iowa by 13 points, which would set a record in a competitive GOP presidential caucus in the state.
Figure 1: First Choice for President Amongst Likely Iowa Caucusgoers
Source: NBC News Des Moines Register
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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