CANADA NOV BUDGET DEFICIT CAD8.2 BLN VS YEAR AGO CAD4.0 BLN

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Supports Slowing Rate Cuts

CANADA DELAYS IMPLEMENTING CAPITAL GAINS TAX HIKE TO JAN 2026

MNI BRIEF: US Dec Core PCE Inflation In Line With Expectations

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bowman Wants Inflation Progress Before Cuts

MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100 BPS TO 13.25%

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 582; OIL RIGS 479; GAS RIGS 98

BAKER HUGHES CANADA RIG COUNT 258; OIL RIGS 186; GAS RIGS 72

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AMERICAS OIL: Trump Tariffs Could Cut Canadian Crude Output by 1.5m b/d: Kpler

AMERICAS OIL
USEnergy BulletsNorth AmericaCanadaBulletCommodities

If Trump follows through on his threat and imposes 25% tariffs on Canadian crude from Feb. 1, it will lead to a significant reduction in Canada’s crude output, Kpler said.

  • If demand for WCS crude from PADD 2 declines, Canada could be forced to seek alternative buyers overseas, necessitating exports via USGC (PADD 3) ports.
  • However, the feasibility of accommodating these additional volumes at Corpus Christi and Houston remains uncertain.
  • In 2024, a total of 3.5m b/d was exported from the USGC, primarily WTI Midland.
  • With upcoming refinery shutdowns, exports could rise to 4m b/d, with max export capacity around 6m b/d.
  • If US demand for up to 3.5m b/d of Canadian crude drops, capacity is insufficient to export these volumes via USGC ports, Kpler said.
  • At least 1.5m b/d of Canadian crude would lack an export route, forcing Canada to cut output by at least 1.5m b/d.
  • The US would face higher costs for crude oil imports, and US consumers would experience elevated fuel prices, suggesting that full implementation of tariffs on Canadian oil is unlikely.

 

Keep reading...Show less
172 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

If Trump follows through on his threat and imposes 25% tariffs on Canadian crude from Feb. 1, it will lead to a significant reduction in Canada’s crude output, Kpler said.

  • If demand for WCS crude from PADD 2 declines, Canada could be forced to seek alternative buyers overseas, necessitating exports via USGC (PADD 3) ports.
  • However, the feasibility of accommodating these additional volumes at Corpus Christi and Houston remains uncertain.
  • In 2024, a total of 3.5m b/d was exported from the USGC, primarily WTI Midland.
  • With upcoming refinery shutdowns, exports could rise to 4m b/d, with max export capacity around 6m b/d.
  • If US demand for up to 3.5m b/d of Canadian crude drops, capacity is insufficient to export these volumes via USGC ports, Kpler said.
  • At least 1.5m b/d of Canadian crude would lack an export route, forcing Canada to cut output by at least 1.5m b/d.
  • The US would face higher costs for crude oil imports, and US consumers would experience elevated fuel prices, suggesting that full implementation of tariffs on Canadian oil is unlikely.

 

Keep reading...Show less