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US: Trump's Cabinet Nominee Appear On Track For Confirmation

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All of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees appear on track for Senate confirmation, according to betting market data from Polymarket.

  • Polymarket shows that Trump’s four most embattled nominees – Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health Secretary, Kash Patel for FBI Director, and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary – all have an implied probability of over 70% for confirmation for the first time, with Gabbard rising from as low as 46% probability of confirmation in late-November.
  • AP notes that “Republican senators spent much of December carefully dodging questions about [RFK]’s views on vaccines, accusations of sexual misconduct against [Hegseth] and [Gabbard’s] 2017 meeting with then-President Bashar Assad of Syria.”
  • ABC News notes: “The outcome of the confirmation process, and the level of dissent in the Senate, will likely set the tone for Trump’s presidency and his relationship with Congress, which was frequently tumultuous during his first term.”
  • Senate hearings for nominees will begin in mid-January, before Trump is inaugurated on January 20. 
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All of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees appear on track for Senate confirmation, according to betting market data from Polymarket.

  • Polymarket shows that Trump’s four most embattled nominees – Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health Secretary, Kash Patel for FBI Director, and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary – all have an implied probability of over 70% for confirmation for the first time, with Gabbard rising from as low as 46% probability of confirmation in late-November.
  • AP notes that “Republican senators spent much of December carefully dodging questions about [RFK]’s views on vaccines, accusations of sexual misconduct against [Hegseth] and [Gabbard’s] 2017 meeting with then-President Bashar Assad of Syria.”
  • ABC News notes: “The outcome of the confirmation process, and the level of dissent in the Senate, will likely set the tone for Trump’s presidency and his relationship with Congress, which was frequently tumultuous during his first term.”
  • Senate hearings for nominees will begin in mid-January, before Trump is inaugurated on January 20.