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TRY Approaches 7.00 in CBRT Week

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens lower on a after greenback at the start of the week.
  • Spot trading around the 7.00 handle, having been largely subdued since 08 Feb. Focus this week on Greece tensions and the CBRT.
  • Gov Agbal is expected to continue to deliver his tightening message following an upside CPI surprise in Jan, causing analysts to price in the off chance of a further 50bp hike at this week's meeting.
  • However, with real yields still sufficiently wide, our base case aligns with a hold at this juncture as Agbal will rather opt to look through transient shocks and the broader medium-term outlook which has been labelled as "balanced".
  • Agbal will also be cognisant of Erdogan pressures to cut earlier than is warranted, and may opt to keep rates on hold until more aggressive pressures force a response.
  • MNI preview will add more details later in the week.
  • More positive global risk sentiment off the back of a weaker $, should remain TRY supportive. A move through the 7.00 handle opens up the next leg of the move lower towards 6.8889.
  • Res1: 7.1228, Res2: 7.1902
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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