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TRY Catalysts Emerge, But Sell-Side Remains Uncertain Below 7.30 vs $

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens lower on slightly firmer risk sentiment out of APAC this morning.
  • Markets will be looking to tomorrow's exploratory talks with Greece, where we're already seeing Erdogan playing nice by asking for permission to operate on its continental shelf.
  • Most see this as temporary sanctions-related window dressing for the EU ahead of the Summit next week. On the surface, Erdogan has been making all the right noises, but the EU is unlikely to be too naïve in assuming he has changed his stripes in ~3 months.
  • Additionally, a broader consensus is emerging for a 100bp hike at Thursday's CBRT with higher FX passthrough from a weaker TRY and a pronounced CPI overshoot in Feb driving a need to reassert a more decisive disinflationary trajectory.
  • Both of these factors should be TRY positive, but the sell-side remains fairly bearish on TRY prospects below 7.30 vs the $, with some seeing a correction back towards 8.00 by year-end.
  • FinMin Elvan is due to speak on Economic reforms today, but may have limited impact, given Erdogan's initial announcement barely moved the needle – leaving a high bar for a large market reaction.
  • Intraday Sup1: 7.4769, Sup2: 7.4167, Res1: 7.5835, Res2: 7.6196
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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