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TRY Dials in on CBRT Hike & Exploratory Talks, Reshuffle Risks To Be Monitored

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY opens 0.5% higher in line with a slightly firmer greenback and mixed sentiment out of APAC.
  • The cross remains pegged above the 7.50 handle, but may perform slightly better than last week with a number of key local catalysts in the pipeline for this week.
  • Primary focus will be the CBRT meeting where Agbal is expected to hike rates ~100bp to reassert the CBRT's tightening stance and offset stickier than expected CPI.
  • This, alongside exploratory talks with Greece, where Erdogan is expected to play nice ahead of the EU summit next week, potentially creates scope for relative TRY outperformance.
  • Sell-side will likely look to fade rallies towards 7.70-7.80, provided UST yields remain broadly stable.
  • One noteworthy tail risk is for the rumoured cabinet reshuffle to cause broad instability in local markets, and although CBRT Gov Agbal has not been named - his removal for failing to bow to political pressure to cut rates would be a majorly negative scenario for TRY assets.
  • Intraday Sup1: 7.5466, Sup2: 7.4769, Res1: 7.6662, Res2: 7.7069
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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